There is no polite way to frame what this match is. The United States have already won Group D, cannot be moved from first place regardless of what happens on Thursday night at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and Turkey have been mathematically eliminated after losing to both Australia and Paraguay without scoring a single goal.
By every measurable competitive standard, this fixture is meaningless, a dead rubber dressed up in World Cup colours. And yet, for reasons that go beyond the scoreline, both teams will walk out at SoFi Stadium on Thursday with something to prove, something to protect, and plenty of reasons to care about how the next 90 minutes unfold.
What the USA actually needs from this game
The easy take is that Pochettino should rest everyone, protect his key players from yellow card accumulation, and treat this as an extended training session.
The more nuanced reality is that with seven days between the Australia win and this match, and then another seven days or so until the Round of 32 on July 1st, keeping players completely without competitive minutes for two weeks is actively counterproductive. Footballers do not maintain sharpness by sitting on a bench. The body needs the game-day warmup, the rhythm of a competitive match, the sharp bursts that training sessions simply cannot replicate in the same way.
So, the approach will not be wholesale rotation, it will be targeted management. The players who absolutely will not feature are those sitting on yellow cards. Tyler Adams, Chris Richards, Anthony Robinson, and Folarin Balogun cannot risk picking up another booking that would see them suspended for the Round of 32.
Adams in particular is a massive loss from the midfield spine, and the fact that his natural backup Cristian Roldan is nursing a muscle strain and is unlikely to be available makes the holding midfield position the most interesting tactical puzzle of the evening. Sebastian Berhalter is the most likely candidate to fill that role, and it will be a significant test of his discipline and positional awareness, qualities that Tyler Adams has made look effortless throughout this tournament, but which are genuinely difficult to replicate.
Christian Pulisic returned to full training this week and has been putting in sprint sessions with the rest of the squad. He did not feature against Australia as a precaution, and the cautious approach here would be to bring him off the bench for 20 to 30 minutes rather than starting him, not because he is unfit but because keeping him on a controlled minute count before the knockout rounds is just sensible asset management.
The argument for starting him is that a proper game-day warmup and the rhythm of starting is actually better for a player returning from injury than a cold 20-minute cameo off the bench. If the medical staff give him the full green light, starting him and substituting at a planned minute makes more sense than throwing him into a game already in progress.
Predicted USA lineup and the tactical picture
Matt Freese starts in goal, that decision has been made and continuity at goalkeeper matters for confidence and communication with the back four.
Across the back line, with Richards and Antonee Robinson unavailable due to yellow card risk, the expected combination is Arfsten on the left, Freese‘s familiar pairing of Tim Ream and Austin Trusty in the centre, and Alex Freeman continuing at right back where he has been solid. Mark McKenzie is the alternative to Ream if Pochettino wants to give the veteran some rest, and with a week until the knockout game, that is a reasonable consideration.
In midfield, Malik Tillman continues in the holding role alongside Berhalter, with Weston McKennie operating higher and with more freedom than he has had in the first two games. McKennie has been one of the more exciting players of this American team when given license to arrive late into the box, and this is the kind of match where that freedom can be extended without defensive consequences.
Gio Reyna gets his start, this is the perfect game for him to find rhythm and confidence ahead of the knockout rounds, and his creative intelligence in tight spaces is something the USA can lean on even against a weakened opponent. Timothy Weah at right wing gives Sergino Dest some rest while keeping someone sharp and direct in that position. Ricardo Pepi leads the line with Balogun unavailable.
USA predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Freese; Scally, Trusty, McKenzie, Arfsten; Berhalter, Tillman; Weah, Reyna, Zendejas; Pepi.
Turkey's playing XI, tournament and what went wrong
It would be easy to simply mock Turkey’s campaign, 62 shots across two matches, zero goals, and an exit that comes 24 years after their memorable 2002 World Cup run where they finished third. But the picture is more complicated than pure incompetence.
Arda Güler, one of the most talented young players in world football, came into this tournament carrying an injury and was nowhere near his best level. He was forcing shots from positions he should not have been shooting from, abandoning the visionary playmaking that makes him special at Real Madrid and replacing it with increasingly desperate long-range attempts.
Kenan Yildiz showed moments but could not consistently find the space his abilities require. Hakan Calhanoglu, one of the best midfielders in Europe at Inter Milan, was present without ever really controlling a game the way he does at club level.
The coaching has to take significant blame here. Vincenzo Montella‘s insistence on playing without a recognisable striker, relying on wingers in positions that required a different profile, left Turkey with no reference point in the final third when their combinations broke down.
When you have technical players like Güler and Calhanoglu, you need a striker who can hold the ball, bring others into play, and occupy defenders. Without that, every attack ended in the same way, a midfielder arriving at the edge of the box with limited options and taking a speculative shot that never seriously troubled any goalkeeper. 62 shots. Zero goals. That is not just bad luck. That is a structural problem.
Turkey predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Muldur, Demiral, Kabak, Kadioglu; Ozcan, Calhanoglu; Guler, Uzun, Yildiz; Yilmaz.
The head-to-head rule and why this match feels broken
A significant part of why this match feels so hollow is the decision FIFA made to use head-to-head record as the primary tiebreaker rather than goal difference.
Under the old format, if Turkey were still mathematically alive going into the final game, there would be genuine drama, they could try to destroy the USA scoreline and hope other results went their way. Under the current rules, because Turkey have already lost head-to-head against both Paraguay and Australia, they cannot finish above either of them regardless of what happens on Thursday.
The result between USA and Turkey cannot change the group standings for any team involved. Nothing about this match changes anything about who goes through or where they finish.
Goal difference as a primary tiebreaker kept teams fighting in dead rubbers. The head-to-head rule has broken the competitive logic of the group stage in exactly these situations, and the USA vs Turkey fixture is the most visible example of it at this tournament. FIFA will presumably review this before 2030, but for now it is what it is, a 90-minute match at a World Cup that cannot change a single thing about who progresses or in what position.
What the USA wants to take out of this
The competitive emptiness of the fixture does not mean the United States should be casual about it. Momentum in tournament football is a real thing, and winning three group games before the knockout rounds began would be a statement, both for the team’s confidence and for the increasingly large American audience that has been tuning in in numbers that were unthinkable a decade ago.
The scenes at Seattle when the USA played Australia were something genuinely new for American football culture, and the opportunity to build on that with another win on home soil in Los Angeles, in front of what will be an enormous crowd at SoFi Stadium, is worth taking seriously.
Turkey, for their part, have nothing to lose and will likely play with more freedom than in either of their previous two games precisely because the pressure has completely evaporated. Players on the fringes of Montella’s squad will want minutes to prove something. Güler might play with the liberation that comes from having nothing riding on the result and produce the kind of performance that reminds everyone what he is actually capable of.
Turkey are far too talented a squad to simply roll over, 62 shots in two games proves they are generating attacking situations, even if the finishing has been catastrophic.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Match prediction
The USA win this comfortably. Even with a rotated lineup, Pochettino’s structural principles are deeply embedded enough that a Turkey side without confidence, without goals, and without a coherent attacking system is not going to find a way through.
The American back line has been excellent throughout the group stage, and Berhalter’s discipline in the holding role will be tested but should be adequate against opponents who have consistently fired wide, over, or straight at goalkeepers from promising positions.
Pulisic comes off the bench in the second half and shows enough to confirm he is ready for the knockout rounds. Reyna has a productive evening in a free role. Pepi contributes a goal or an assist. Turkey score their first goal of the tournament, finally, but it comes in the final quarter against reserves and means nothing about the pattern of the game.
Final prediction: USA 2-1 Turkey, a professional group stage close-out that sets up the Round of 32 with confidence intact and the right players rested and ready.
Frequently Asked Questions
Christian Pulisic has returned to training and could feature against Turkey, although the USA may choose to manage his minutes carefully ahead of the Round of 32.
No. Turkey have already been eliminated after defeats to Australia and Paraguay, meaning they cannot advance regardless of the result against the United States.
Arda Güler is expected to feature and could be one of Turkey’s key players as they look to finish their tournament with a strong performance.
With Tyler Adams likely to be rested due to suspension concerns, Sebastian Berhalter is among the leading candidates to fill the defensive midfield role.
Despite registering dozens of shots across their opening matches, Turkey have lacked a consistent goalscoring threat and have struggled to convert possession into meaningful results.
Amar Pal Singh Bhalla is a sports writer covering cricket, football and tennis.
Based in India, he has followed the game for the last few years and writes
match analysis, previews and features for Beyond The Score
